This May signals the return of local elections to the borough of Newcastle under Lyme for the first time since 2022. There are nine seats up for grabs within the Staffordshire County Council across the borough, all of which voted for the Conservative Party at the last election, in a clean sweep that saw Labour lose three seats. The story this time round could however be a very different one.
There have, in fact, been two separate sets of elections since these seats were last contested in 2021, those being the aforementioned Newcastle under Lyme Borough Council in 2022 and of course the one most people are aware of, the General Election in 2024. In terms of the prior, the Conservatives again saw an increase in seats, with the total haul being 25, two over the threshold required for a majority, they gained seven seats, one from Labour, three off the Liberal Democrats and three off the Independents; some of which changed hands in by-elections during the previous electoral cycle. However, a lot has changed since then. We have had four different prime ministers in that time, with Boris Johnson leaving, the Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak eras all coming and going, and the new Labour administration beginning, which all take place within this time span. With so much change it is important to figure out what might play out this time round and what each party might expect.
As previously mentioned, the Conservatives did well last time, winning all the seats up for grabs within the borough, in the Staffordshire County Council elections. This time round it might be more of a challenge. The General Election saw the parliamentary seat of Newcastle under Lyme switch back to Labour for the first time since 2019, reflecting the national swing towards Labour more broadly. The reasons for this are self-explanatory, at least in relation to the national picture. Although Partygate did not appear to cause too much of an upset for the Conservatives in the borough elections, the disastrous budget and other national issues may well have played a part towards Adam Jogee being elected to parliament. Similarly local issues such as the handling of Walley’s quarry by the current Conservative administration in Newcastle may well have also influenced the shift. It is therefore very difficult to see how the Conservatives manage to retain all 9 seats. That being said, there is some hope from a Conservative perspective in the fact that they do have some safe seats in the area that rarely change hands and on a more broader level the areas around Stoke-on-Trent are traditionally quite socially conservative in nature, this combined with the more rural nature of parts of the borough may well aid them come May.
Labour has a lot to be cheerful about this time round. As previously mentioned, the parliamentary seat has been returned to them after five years. On the national level they have been performing solidly, albeit without necessarily kicking up any trees, something which may further boost their credentials locally. Considering they are effectively starting from ground zero again, even gaining just one seat can be seen as a success. The areas where they will likely most target are the three seats they lost last time round, those being Audley and Chesterton, Talke and Red Street, and the most important to students at the university, Keele, Knutton and Silverdale. Of course, they may well do better than this and gain some of the seats they lost in 2017, particularly in urban areas such as May Bank and Cross Heath, but at this point it is very difficult to tell.
One marked difference from 2021 is the surge in support for Reform UK, previously the Brexit party. In the past, the party, which splintered away from UKIP in 2018, had done quite well within the local area, winning Keele, Knutton and Silverdale district in 2013. More recently in the 2024 General Election, Reform came third, on 22.4% of the vote. This means that in all likelihood we may see one or two seats going to the party in May. This is likely a result of the demographics of the local area. As previously mentioned, people within the Stoke-on-Trent area tend to be socially quite conservative despite their working-class roots and may feel a change is needed from the pre-existing party politics of the area.
There may also be a boost for the Liberal Democrats, as they have adopted a more local grassroots approach to campaigning, often focusing on local issues which affect people. They also have not necessarily been mired by the national picture either. On a similar note, Independent candidates may also see a good return in relation to campaigning locally, again with issues such as Walley’s Quarry potentially weighing on people’s minds this time round.
Lastly, it is important to note that many people don’t necessarily see a point in voting in local elections, as the perceived impact is not that great. This could not be further from the truth. Local councils are fundamental to the running of day-to-day services within the local area such as schools, healthcare, and policing. These affect everybody and the only way to have a say on how you want these to be run is by voting on 1st May.
