Usually, the projections on the evening of election day don’t differ much from the official results released the next morning. This time, however, it remained unclear well into the night whether the BSW (see table below for explanation of party names and identities) would make it into the Bundestag (German federal parliament). Only parties with five percent or more of the vote can enter parliament. If a party falls just short, the other qualifying parties receive a greater share of seats—making the success or failure of smaller parties critical to forming coalitions.
On 23rd February, three parties were on the brink of the 5% threshold: Linke, BSW, and FDP. In the end, a coalition of CDU and SPD became viable only because neither BSW nor FDP reached the mark. Had they done so, a third party—such as the Grüne—would have been needed for a majority.
The results were as follows:
CDU/CSU remained the strongest party with around 33% of the vote.
The AfD followed with 20.8%,
While the SPD hit a historic low at 16.4%.
The Grüne fell by 3% to 11.6%,
But the Linke surprised observers with 8.8%, a 3.9% gain.
Turnout was the highest since 1987 at 82.5%, despite the short campaign period following the collapse of the previous coalition in November 2024.
The losses for SPD, Grüne, and FDP are widely attributed to voter dissatisfaction with their former coalition government. Many parties either ignored or downplayed the mass protests—over a million people—against the far right, while simultaneously proposing more hostile migration policies. The Linke, by contrast, stood against such trends, which may explain their surge in support.
The 10% gain by the AfD is linked not just to growing populist sentiment but also to the rightward shift of CDU/CSU under Friedrich Merz. The adoption of more populist rhetoric and harsher immigration stances, along with a recent vote passed in cooperation with the AfD, may have helped normalize far-right views in mainstream politics.
There’s also a stark geographic divide in the results. In former West Germany, most voted for CDU/CSU, while in the former East Germany, the AfD received over 30% of the vote in nearly all regions outside Berlin. Despite the 35 years since reunification, many in the East feel left behind—fearing immigrants may take their jobs, even as the ageing population and worker shortages grow more urgent. Economic frustrations have been redirected at the political establishment.
Notably, there was a wave of tourist cancellations in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern following the election. The eastern state gave 35% of its vote to the AfD, and many tourists—particularly those with a migration background—are now avoiding the area due to both political protest and safety concerns.
At present, two coalitions can form a majority:
CDU/CSU + SPD, or
CDU/CSU + AfD (less likely, as Merz has ruled out cooperation with the far-right).
Still, a coalition with the SPD won’t be easy. Current negotiations have exposed key conflicts:
Immigration policy: CDU/CSU want stricter rules, including the removal of subsidiary protection and restrictions on family reunification. SPD opposes these changes, which may not align with EU law anyway.
Support for Ukraine: Both back it, but CDU/CSU favours stronger support.
Financial limits: Germany has a legal cap on public debt. Changing it requires parliamentary approval—which may be blocked by AfD and Linke. Merz is now trying to adjust the debt ceiling while the old parliament is still in session.
Other sticking points include basic income, minimum wage, pensions, taxes, combustion engine regulations, and nuclear energy. Despite these tensions, both parties claim they aim to reach an agreement by Easter.
Yet doubts remain. Some SPD MPs have already said they won’t vote for Merz as chancellor. The CDU/CSU’s recent cooperation with AfD has eroded trust. Merz risks losing his majority if more than twelve SPD MPs break ranks—unless AfD steps in to fill the gap. If Merz accepts support from both SPD and AfD as needed, he could theoretically govern—but such an arrangement would be highly unstable and controversial.
